Here’s Some Numbers I Don’t Use – 10, 2, 9, 7

Like any property lover, I’m keen to see where the market is heading. For me it’s all about numbers. I like numbers – that’s why I like property development.

Strip out the emotion and it’s down to the numbers. If numbers were people, I’d hang out with them all the time. Maybe even marry one. Here’s some numbers I don’t use – 10, 2, 9, 7. If you haven’t guessed it, they’re TV channels. I don’t go there for property information. Sometimes I go there for entertainment. I don’t go there for COVID information either. I go to the Government website.

Anyone who would con us with ‘reality’ television simply can’t be trusted. If you think the reno, relationship, talent etc programs are 100% legit, with no producer intervention, no written scripts, no multiple re-takes, no structured conflict, no known winners, and contestants are chosen randomly like Lotto numbers, you’re living on another planet.

It’s all about entertainment. Real-life is boring. I think I lead an exciting life but if you were subjected to watching me, you would last five minutes. The most interesting thing you would see is me taking the p*#s out of the reality TV shows.

I have friends in the videography editing world in the southern capitals. Between them, they have worked on just about every ‘reality’ program. The stories they have of the ‘unreality’ is far more exciting than even the ‘unreality’ you end up seeing on your screen. There are a couple of exceptions (probably) like Ninja Warrior.

Well, TV is about entertainment and viewer numbers. Viewer numbers are about selling advertising. The newspapers are similar. And most importantly, shock headlines grab attention and fear is the emotion you must fire up.

Remember these? Here are a few for your ‘entertainment’.
Sydney and Melbourne property prices could fall up to 30% due to coronavirus
SQM Research (Louis Christopher) said a 30% decline in dwelling prices by the end of 2020 is entirely possible, with overvalued cities like Sydney and Melbourne the worst hit 8 April 2020.
House prices in Australia could drop up to 20% due to coronavirus.

Talk about hedging your bets. Investment bank UBS said if the pandemic continues into September and infects 16% of the global population at higher fatality rates, house prices could plummet by up to 20%. 

However, a ‘moderate’ scenario, where infection rates peak in May and the virus is contained within the next six weeks, would see house prices rise 5%. 20 March 2020. House prices could dive 30 per cent in ‘severe downside’ scenario. House prices could tumble by a cumulative 30 per cent over this year and next under the most pessimistic scenario unveiled by National Australia Bank, as it braces for higher defaults caused by the coronavirus crisis 27 April 2020.

CBA warns Australia risks 32 per cent house price crash. Australia’s biggest home lender is warning Australian house prices could tumble by a third if coronavirus leads to a “prolonged downturn” 13 May 2020. Coronavirus pandemic could see house prices plummet by 20 per cent, economist warns. AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver has predicted that unemployment will likely shoot up to about 10 per cent and this could result in a 20 per cent drop in Melbourne and Sydney house prices. 24 March 2020. I’ll be posting my monthly Market Update in The Property Accelerator Membership today. Here are a few grabs, mostly from Core Logic.

Change in dwelling values during Covid (March – July) = -0.8%

Here they are by Capital City
Melbourne       -3.5%
Perth                -2.0%
Sydney             -1.7%
Brisbane             -0.6%
Darwin               -0%
Adelaide           +0.7%
Hobart              +0.8%
ACT                  +1.3%

If we were to drill down into the cities there would be suburbs that have copped an uppercut and others that are jabbing their way out of trouble. That’s real estate.

Anyway, I’m off to have a coffee break for 20 minutes and relax. I’m not sure what re-run I want to watch to de-stress myself – The Farmer Wants a Wife, Married at First Sight, or Scott Cam trying to keep a straight face by pretending to be a cranky builder (he did win 5 Logies remember) on that show where everyone auctions their property at the end at a huge loss.

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